Weather outlook · next 7 days

Every mission leg scored against the organization's planning thresholds, with the trend since the last run, and against the assigned pilot's own EFB minimums once a pilot is confirmed. The pilot in command decides go or no-go.

Run Mon 06:00 PT · TAF, MOS, AIRMET/SIGMET, TFR · next 12:00

Mission legs scored

Mon to Sun · 4 without a pilot

Concern

Wed return · Fri return

Watch

2 have a suggested fix

Good

no action

Since Friday's 06:00 run

4 ↓1 ↑7 →

worsened · improved · unchanged

Legs by day

Departure airport at departure time, arrival airport at arrival time, route advisories in between

Monday, Nov 2 · today

Good

↑ improved · was Watch

08:30KSBA → KSAND. Okafor · Tom Reyes · SR22T-0398

Ceiling 2,500 → clear 08:00Vis 6 smWind 6 ktNo AIRMETNo TFRTom's minimums · OK

Marine layer burning off an hour earlier than Friday's forecast. Nothing to do.

Watch

→ unchanged

13:00KFAT → KSMOL. Nguyen · Priya Shah · C182T-0401

Ceiling clearVis 10 smKSMO wind 15G25 from 14:00Crosswind 18 kt rwy 21No TFRPriya's minimums · at her 25 kt gust limit

Arrival 14:10 lands as the gusts build. Priya has been told. A 12:15 departure would land before them if the ride can move.

Good

→ unchanged

15:30KSAN → KSBAD. Okafor return · Tom ReyesT-0398

ClearWind 9 ktNo AIRMETTom's minimums · OK

Tuesday, Nov 3

Watch

↓ worsened · was Good

07:45KSMX → KMYFR. Alvarez · Tom Reyes · SR22T-0412

KSMX ceiling 700 ft OVC until 10:00Vis 4 sm mistKMYF clearWind 5 ktNo TFRTom's minimums · OK (IFR, 500 ft)

Coastal stratus deepened in every run since Friday. Tom is instrument rated and inside his minimums, but the client gets airsick and the planned departure is in the low layer. A 10:30 departure still makes the 12:30 arrival deadline.

Wednesday, Nov 4

Watch

→ unchanged

09:00KSAN → KSBAG. Petrov · no pilotT-0417

Clear both endsKSBA gusts 28 kt after 14:00No AIRMETNo pilot, no personal minimums

Morning is fine. The afternoon wind is stated on the mission so pilots offer early departures.

Concern

↓ worsened · was Watch

15:30KSBA → KSANG. Petrov return · no pilotT-0417

KSBA gusts 32 ktLLWS advisory 14:00 to 20:00AIRMET turbulence below 8,000Vis 10 sm

Sundowner wind event. A same-day afternoon return is unlikely to be flown. Options: a morning clinic slot and return by 13:00, or a night at Cottage Hospital housing and return Thursday.

Replan the return

Thursday, Nov 5

Good

→ unchanged

13:30KMYF → KSMXR. Alvarez return · no pilot, 1 blocked offerT-0412

ClearWind 8 ktNo AIRMET

Friday, Nov 6

Watch

↓ worsened · was Good

08:15KRNO → KSMOA. Castillo · offers from Priya Shah, Jim AlvaradoT-0420

AIRMET icing above 9,000 ft over the SierraFreezing level 8,500 ftMountain obscuration DonnerKSMO clearBoth offered aircraft non-FIKI

Routing via KSAC and the valley avoids the icing band and adds about 40 minutes. Confirm whichever pilot is comfortable with the valley route.

Concern

↓ worsened · was Watch

16:00KSMO → KRNOA. Castillo return · same pilotT-0420

Icing AIRMET through 22:00Night arrival over terrainKRNO wind 20G30

Infusion ends 15:00. Evaluate a Saturday morning return with a night at the Westside hospitality house, or a Southwest donated seat SMO to RNO at 18:40.

Saturday, Nov 7

Watch

↓ worsened · was Good

07:00KPDX → KMFRE. Lindqvist · relay leg 1 · Angel Flight OregonT-0409

Mountain obscuration SiskiyousKMFR ceiling 1,800 ftWind 7 ktTheir pilot, their minimums

Shared trip: Angel Flight Oregon owns this leg. We see the score because the handoff at KMFR depends on it.

Watch

→ unchanged

09:30KMFR → KSMFE. Lindqvist · relay leg 2 · 1 offer, verifyingT-0409

KMFR ceiling 1,800 ft at departureKSMF clearNo AIRMET south of Redding

If leg 1 slips, the handoff slips. The handoff warning on the trip fires automatically.

Sunday, Nov 8

Good

→ unchanged

11:00KSEE → KTRMK. Ramirez · Hank Dorsey · PA-32T-0422

ClearWind 10 ktSanta Ana watch starts Monday, not SundayHank's minimums · OK

Forecast history

Tue 07:45 · KSMX → KMYF · R. Alvarez

Run	KSMX ceiling	Vis	Wind	Score
Thu 06:00	3,000 BKN	6 sm	4 kt	Good
Fri 06:00	2,000 BKN	5 sm	4 kt	Good
Fri 18:00	1,200 OVC	4 sm	3 kt	Watch
Sat 06:00	900 OVC	4 sm	5 kt	Watch
Sun 06:00	800 OVC	4 sm	5 kt	Watch
Mon 06:00	700 OVC to 10:00	4 sm	5 kt	Watch

Six runs in a row have lowered the morning ceiling. The 10:00 clearing time has held for three runs, which is why the 10:30 suggestion is offered.

How legs are scored

Two scores: the organization's planning thresholds, and the assigned pilot's EFB minimums

Good. Ceiling at or above 3,000 ft and visibility 5 sm or more at both airports for the hour around the leg. Wind under 15 kt, gusts under 25. No convective, icing or turbulence advisory on the route. No TFR.

Watch. Ceiling 1,000 to 3,000 ft or visibility 3 to 5 sm, gusts 25 to 30 kt, crosswind over 15 kt, mountain obscuration, or an AIRMET for turbulence or icing above the planned altitude.

Concern. Ceiling under 1,000 ft or visibility under 3 sm, a convective SIGMET or icing AIRMET at or below the route altitude, low-level wind shear, gusts over 30 kt, night arrival over mountainous terrain, or a TFR on the route.

Pilot minimums. Once a pilot is confirmed, the same factors are checked against the minimums they keep in their EFB, and the result shows as a tag. A Good for us can still be a no-go for them, and a Watch is routine for many instrument-rated pilots. The trend compares the latest run with Friday's 06:00 run for the same hour; the forecast history shows every run between.

Sources in this run

TAF · 9 airportsissued 05:40

MOS · days 3 to 700Z cycle

AIRMET / SIGMET · west03:00 to 09:00

TFRs · route corridornone active

Pilot minimums · from the EFB5 pilots

Via Tropiq platform API06:02 PT